The University of Texas at Arlington
HOME PAGE—Greg Feigel
c/o Department of Finance & Real Estate, College of Business Administration
Dept. main address:
UTA Box 19449, Business Building, 4th Floor, Room 240B
701 S. West Street
Arlington, TX 76019
Dept. main telephone number: (817) 272-3705
OFFICE HOURS By appointment—generally the best time is immediately after a scheduled lecture.
INFORMATION and LINKS to PREVIOUS SEMESTERS This information is generally removed within a week of grade submissions. Contact me directly by email should you have any questions.
GENERAL POLICIES You are expected to know university policies regarding academic honesty and integrity, as well as all other rules and regulations regarding behavior and comportment.
I use technology tools extensively (BlackBoard for collaboration and contact, MS Office
Suite—specifically Excel—in and out of class, etc.). Ideally you should be familiar with all
of these tools. See course content details listed in course syllabi.
COURSES THIS SEMESTER The homepages for courses scheduled for this semester can be accessed by clicking on the links below. Links for courses from previous semesters are disabled after grades are posted.
> None scheduled
GENERAL INFORMATION AND SERVICES The following are provided to aid in your general understanding of the economy and the financial sector:
> THE YIELD CURVE Updated monthly—THIS IS A GRAPHIC IDENTIFYING PATTERNS IN THE YIELD CURVE based on Wall Street Journal reporting of the ‘Treasury Bonds, Notes and Bills’ market. THIS SPREADSHEET HAS AN EMBEDDED MACRO—ACCEPT IT FOR A DYNAMIC VIEW.
> RELEVANT CURRENT EVENTS Updated regularly—these are important events occurring this school year (generally I list only those things that are unusual and occur once every 4-5 years or longer):
4/6/2018-WSJ-A.4 The US Trade Deficit at $57.6 billion in February was the sixth straight monthly increase and the highest since the
recession month of October 2008, per the Commerce Department.
3/16/18-WSJ Online. The University of Michigan Consumer-sentiment index was 102.0 in March, the highest level since January 2004
3/9/18-WSJ Online. Per the DOL, 800,000 people entered the workforce last month, the largest one-month labor-pool increase since 1983,
and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, a 17 year low.
3/9/18-WSJ-A2. According to the FED, US household net worth—the value of all assets such as stocks and real estate minus liabilities like
mortgage and credit-card debt—rose more than $2 trillion last quarter to a record $98.746 trillion. The saving rate was 3.74% for 2017, down from 5.98% a year earlier and 7.19% in 2015.
3/8/18 WSJ-A.2. Per the Commerce Dept., the trade deficit at $56.6B last month was the highest in over 9 years.
3/6/18 WSJ Online. More than $325B of M&A bids have been made in 2018YTD, according to Dealogic, the highest amount since 2000.
3/1/2018 WSJ Online. U.S. Jobless Claims fell by 10,000 to a SA 210,000 in the week ended Feb. 24, the lowest level since 12/6/1969.
2/14/18-WSJ Online. Per the Commerce Dept., the CPI rose 0.349% in January, the strongest one-month increase since March 2005.
2/13/18-WSJ Online. Household debt rose $193B to a record $13.15T in 4Q17, the fifth straight year overall balances increased, per
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
2/8/18-WSJ Online. The Institute for Supply Management index of factory activity rose to 58.8 in August, the highest level since
April 2011. A reading above 50 indicates sector expansion.
2/2/18-WSJ Online Factory orders rose 6% in 2017 from 2016, per Commerce Dept., the best % increase for a full year in the past six.
Total orders in 2017, $5.697T, were below 2014, which at $5.931T was the highest level on records back to 1992.
1/30/18-WSJ Online. 2017 home ownership at 64.2% of households rose for the first time in 13 years according to the Census Bureau.
The record low at 62.9% occurred in 2Q16, the record high 69.2% in 2Q04.
1/29/18-WSJ Online. U.S. household net worth rose from $56T in 2008 to $97T in 3Q 2017 while the saving rate was 2.4% of disposable
household income in December, the Commerce Department said. That was the lowest rate since September 2005
1/25/18-WSJ-A.2. According to the National Association of Realtors, US home sales in 2017, at 5.51MM, the highest since 2006 (6.48MM).
1/21/18-WSJ Online. Canadian factory sales surged 3.4% in November to an SA record level of C55.47 billion Canadian dollars
($44.57 billion), per Statistics Canada The last time manufacturing sales rose greater than 3.4% was in July, 2009, or just after the end of the recession triggered by the global credit crisis. (Recording began 9/30/1989).
12/26/17-WSJ-A.1. Retail holiday sales rose 4.9% in the holiday period 11/1 through 12/24, the best gain since 2011 per MasterCard
Spending Pulse (incl. both retail and online).
12/26/17-WSJ-B.1. International debt credit ratings are at their lowest level since 2010, per the Institute of International Finance.
12/23/17-WSJ Online. The personal saving rate in November was 2.9% per the Commerce Dept., falling below 3% for the first time since
12/23/17-WSJ Online. New home sales for November at SA 733K were the highest since July 2007.
12/9/17-WSJ-A.1. Per the DOL, the November unemployment rate at 4.1% for the 2nd consecutive month matches the 17-year low
11/30/17-WSJ-A.2. Per the CBO, Actual 3Q 17 GDP exceeded potential GDP for the first time since 4Q07
11/28/17-WSJ Online The Conference Board index of U.S. consumer confidence increased to 129.5 in November from 126.2 in October,
which was already the highest level in 17 years.
11/27/17-WSJ Online 12-month loan growth at U.S. banks in 3Q hit its lowest level since 4Q 2013,per the FDIC, the 6th consecutive
quarterly drop. The growth rate for business lending hit the lowest rate since 1Q 2011, and 2017 is on track for the worst year for business lending since 2010.
11/15/17-WSJ-A.1. Japan’s GDP growth hit 1.4%, extending its longest growth streak to 7 quarters of (anemic) growth, the longest
in 16 years.
-WSJ-A.1. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said household debt totaled $12.955T last quarter, up 0.9% from 2Q and
the 13th straight quarterly increase. That was the most on record (unadjusted for inflation or population growth).
11/3/17-WSJ Online. Non-farm payrolls rose 261K in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, its lowest level since
10/31/17-WSJ-A.1. The US savings rate dropped to 3.1% in September, a 10-year low, per the Commerce Dept.
10/25/17-WSJ Online. U. S. new-home sales in September recorded the largest single-month increase since 1992, up 18.9% to a
SA annual rate of 667K in September, per the Commerce Department. New home sales at the highest level since October 2007, but far below the peak of 1.3 million recorded in 2005.
10/19/17-WSJ Online. Initial jobless claims fell by 22K to a seasonally adjusted 222K in the week ended Oct. 14, the lowest level in
44 years, per the Labor Department.
10/6/17-WSJ Online. The VIX hit 9.19, the lowest level since December 1993.
10/3/17-WSJ-A.2. The Institute for Supply Management said its index of manufacturing activity rose to 60.8 in August, the
Highest since may 2004.
9/1/17-WSJ Online. The Institute for Supply Management said Friday its index of factory activity rose to 58.8 in August from 56.3 in
July, hitting the highest level since April 2011.
8/17/17-WSJ.B.11. Zinc prices, rose to $3081 / MT on the LME, closing at $3028 / MT, the highest level in 10 years (10/2007).
- The jobless rate for Americans between 16-24 years of age fell to 9.6% in July, the lowest level since 1969 per the DOL.
8/8/17-WSJ Online. Per the DOL, a record 6.2 million job openings were posted at the end of June.
8/1/17-WSJ-A.1. 2Q credit card charge-offs reached 3.9%, the highest in 4 years according to Fitch Ratings
7/18/17-WSJ Online. In the year ended in March, foreigners purchased a record $153B American homes, a 50% increase over the old
record. Most of the surge was due to Chinese buyers.
7/25/17-WSJ-B.13. The VIX hit 9.05 the lowest on record (24 years).
7/17/17-WSJ-A.1, B.9. The VIX fell to 9.51, the lowest level in 23 years.
6/24/17-WSJ Online. Prices of new home sales hit a record $406,400 in May according to the Commerce Dept., and the median
price of $345,600 was the highest since 1963. New single family home inventories hit the lowest levels since August 1982, and prior to that August 1971.
6/21/17-WSJ (MarketWatch) Online. The yield curve hit its flattest level since November, 2007, with the spread between the 5-year
Treasury note and the 30-year bond at 95.6 basis points, according to WSJ Market Data Group.
6/2/17-WSJ Online. The DOL reported the unemployment rate at 4.3%, the lowest since May 2001.
5/29/17-WSJ Online. The average credit score nationwide hit 700 in April, according to new data from Fair Isaac Corp. That’s
the highest since at least 2005 when data collection began.
5/17/17-WSJ Online. Per the NY FED, total household debt hit a record in 1Q, $12.725T.
5/16/17-WSJ-A.1. Existing-home sales climbed 1.4% in 1Q to a SA annual rate of 5.62MM, the highest since 1Q07, according to the
National Association of Realtors.
5/12/17-WSJ Online. For the period ended May 13th, continuing jobless claims declined 22K to 1.9MM in April, the lowest since November
1988, the Labor Department said.
5/11/17-WSJ Online. 854K new-owner households were formed during 1Q, more than double the 365K new-renter households, per the
Census Bureau data. It was the first time in a decade there were more new buyers than renters, according to an analysis by home-tracker Trulia.
5/9/17-WSJ-A.1. The VIX risk gauge hit its lowest level since 1993.
5/6/17-WSJ Online. Per the DOL, the jobless rate in April at 4.4% is the lowest in 10 years.
4/28/17-Bloomberg Online. Per the Commerce Dept., US GDP 1Q17 was .7%, and consumer spending, the largest part of the economy,
rose 0.3 percent, the worst performance since 2009.
4/22/17-WSJ Online. March existing home sales at SA 5.71MM units, the highest pace in 10 years per the Natl. Assn of Realtors.
4/7/17-NYT Online. According to the DOL, March job growth at 98K is the lowest in 10 years, while the unemployment rate dropped
0.2% to 4.5%.
4/6/17-WSJ Online. According to the DOL, jobless claims at 250K have remained below 300K for 109 consecutive weeks, the longest
streak since 1970. The number of weekly claims has generally declined since the recession ended in 2009, touching the lowest level in 44 years in late February.
3/31/14-WSJ Online. The personal-consumption expenditures price index (“PCI”), the FED’s preferred inflation gauge, was up 2.1% in
Feb. from a year earlier, per the Commerce Department, and the highest annual gain since March 2012.
3/29/17-WSJ Online. According to NYSE data, Margin debt in the US rose in February to a record $528.2B.
3/28/17-WSJ-A1, A3. According to research on federal data indicating a near 50 year low home ownership rate, GDP is foregoing 1.8%
annual GDP growth.
3/24/17-WSJ-A.2. New home purchases at 592K SA, up 6.1% from January and the highest in 5 years per the Commerce Dept.
3/16/17-WSJ Online, Housing starts rose 3% in February from the previous month to a SA rate of 1.288 million per the Commerce
Department said, the highest October 2007, and the figure for single-family permits was the best since September 2007.
3/14/17-WSJ Online. The Business Roundtable CEO Econ Outlook Index rose 19.1 points in the first quarter from the fourth quarter,
to 93.3, the largest one-quarter gain for the index since 4Q 2009. (#’s > 50 indicate economic expansion).
3/9/17-WSJ Online. 4Q16 corporate debt rose .8%, the slowest in 6 years per the FED.
3/7/17-NYT Online. The US trade deficit rose 9.6% in January to $48.5B, the highest level since 2012.
3/2/17-WSJ Online. US unemployment claims fell to 223K last week, the lowest in 44 years, per the Dept. of Labor.
2/17/17-WSJ Online. US gasoline inventories at 259 million barrels is the highest in EIA records dating to 1990.
2/16/17-WSJ Online. American household debt at $12.6T rose by $226B in 2016 to the highest level in 10 years and just shy of
the record level of $12.7T (3Q 2008).
2/15/2017-WSJ Online. January consumer prices increased 0.6% monthly, the highest in 4 years.
2/10/17-WSJ-A.8. Germany’s trade surplus at $270.6B is the highest since records began in 1946.
2/8/17-WSJ Online. Corporate debt repricing to lower interest rates in January, at ~$100B, more than doubled the previous record
(records began 2001).
WSJ-A.1. The 2016 US trade deficit, at $502.25B, was the highest in four years per the Commerce Department.
WSJ-A.1. China’s currency reserves fell to 2.998T, the lowest in 6 years.
2/6/17-WSJ-B.9. Worldwide M&A activity in January at $280B, is the highest since 2000 per Dealogic.
1/31/17-Forbes Online. Chinese investments in international real estate hit a record high $33B in 2016 according to JLL Global
1/24/17-WSJ Online. The National Assn. of Realtors reported properties for sale at 1.65 million, the lowest level since 1999. The
median sale price of single family homes rose to $232,200, up 4% from 2015.
1/19/17-Financial Times Online. US treasury holdings by China fell to the lowest level since 2010, with total FOREX reserves falling
1/17/17-WSJ-A.1. The British pound fell to a 31-year low against the dollar, $1.2046.
1/12/16-WSJ-A.1. The Mexican peso hit another record low, approaching 2.2 / $. (ed. note: 12th largest economy PPP basis).
1/11/17-WSJ-A.9. The Turkish lira hit a 4th straight record low, approaching 3.93 / $. (ed. note: 18th largest economy, PPP basis).
1/7/17-WSJ-A.1. Per the Department of Labor, 2016 unemployment rate at 4.7% was the lowest in 10 years. Wages increased
2.9% in December, the highest rate since 2009. The labor participation rate, at 62.7% remained near a 40-year low.
1/5/2017-WSJ Online. Initial jobless claims declined 28K to a seasonally adjusted 235K in the week ended Dec. 31, per the Labor
Department, to the second lowest since late 1973.
1/4/2017-WSJ Online. US light vehicle sales of 17.6MM units set a back-to-back record level.
12/29/16-WSJ Online. According to Renaissance Capital, 2016 IPOs at $18.8 billion were the lowest since $15.2 billion in 2003.
12/27/16-WSJ Online. The Conference Board said Tuesday its index of consumer confidence rose to 113.7 in December, the highest
since August 2001.
12/23/16-WSJ Online. The University of Michigan said Friday its monthly index of consumer sentiment rose 4.7 points from a month
earlier to a reading of 98.2 in December, reaching the highest level since January 2004.
12/22/16-NYT Online. US population grew 2.2 million people from July 2015 to July 2016, bringing the total population to just over
323 million, the slowest rate of annual growth since 1937.
12/21/16-WSJ Online. Almost 40% of young Americans were living with their parents, siblings or other relatives in 2015, the largest
percentage since 1940, according to an analysis of census data by real estate tracker Trulia.
12/16/16 WSJ Online. The Chinese yuan at $0.14 to the $ is an 8-year low.
- The three-month dollar LIBOR, a widely watched benchmark for the cost of lending, at 0.96% is the highest since 2009.
12/15/16-WSJ-A.1. US $ surges to 14 year high on world markets.
12/14/16 WSJ-A.1, B.18. The yield on 2-year Treasury bonds hit a 6 year high (vs. 4/2010), 1.169%
12/8/16-Washington Post Online. According to the National Center for Health Statistics, overall US life expectancy fell by one-tenth of a
year, from 78.9 in 2014 to 78.8 in 2015. The last time U.S. life expectancy at birth declined was in 1993, when it dropped from 75.6 to 75.4, according to World Bank data.
12/3/16-WSJ-A.3 and Online. Per the Labor Dept., the unemployment rate reached 4.6%, the lowest since 2007, however October hourly
earnings dropped .1% and the labor participation rate at 62.7% remains near the lowest point in 38 years.
11/28/16-WSJ-B.1. S&P Global Platts, an energy sector publisher, reports the US recently became a net exporter of natural gas, the first
time in 60 years.
11/18/16-WSJ Online. US bond premia vs. the German bund hit a 27-year high, last seen when the Berlin Wall fell (1989).
- The Chinese Yuan fell to an 8-year low.
- The ICE U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, reached its highest level in more than 13 years.
11/17/16-WSJ Online. Unemployment claims last week, at 235,000 SA, were the lowest in 42 years (1973) per the DOL.
- October housing starts for October rose 25.5% to 1.323 million, the sharpest pace since August 2007.
11/12/13-WSJ-B.1. The DJIA rose 5.4%, the largest weekly rise in 5 years.
11/4/16-WSJ Online. The S&P 500 ended the week before the U.S. election with its longest losing streak since 1980, down 3.1% vs.
a loss of 9.4% in 1980.
11/2/16-WSJ Online. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude-oil stockpiles rose by 14.4 million barrels in the week ended
Oct. 28--the largest weekly increase in 34 years of data collected by the EIA
10/28/16-WSJ Online. U.S. companies have struck $248.9 billion of merger agreements this month, according to Dealogic, surpassing the
previous record of $240 billion in July 2015. Last week’s volume set a single-week record.
10/24/16-WSJ Online. In the past week global deal volume hit $207B per Dealogic, the largest amount since 1999.
10/12/16-WSJ Online. The Pound Sterling hit a record low (since 1975) based on a trade-weighted index from the Bank of England.
8/26/16-WSJ Online. The CBO estimates the 2016 federal deficit at $590B, the largest deficit since 2013 and the federal share of GDP, at
76.6% of GDP is the highest since 1950.
8/25/16-WSJ Online. According to S&P Global, global corporate defaults are currently at the highest level since 2009, mainly due to
energy sector defaults.
8/23/16-WSJ Online. New-home sales jumped 12.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 654,000 annual SA units, the strongest
level since October 2007, the Commerce Department said. July’s median sales price dipped 0.5 percent from a year ago to $294,600.
8/15/16-WSJ Online. Short bets against the British Pound hit a record 90,082 contracts according to the Commodity Futures Trading
Commission. The pound traded at its lowest level since 2010, $1.29.
- WSJ.A.1 and WSJ Online. The DJIA, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ Composite all closed at records. The DJIA rose to 18636.05. The S&P 500 closed at 2190.15, and the Nasdaq Composite closed at 5262.02, its third consecutive record.
8/14/16-WSJ Online. Orders for new ocean-going vessels fell to a record low while vessels scrapped rose to 52 million metric tons, the
second highest amount on record (after 61MM metric tons in 2012). This year orders through July fell to 293 vessels, or 11.6 million tons, according to U.K. marine data provider Vessels Value.
8/9/16-WSJ Online. Nonfarm business productivity, measured as the output of goods and services produced by American workers
per hour worked, fell <0.5%> in 2Q, the third consecutive quarter of falling productivity and the longest streak since 1979 per the Labor Department.
8/5/15-WSJ Online. The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ indexes hit new records, 2182.87 and 5221.12, respectively.
8/5/16-WSJ Online. US single family residential lot prices increased to a record $45,000, up from the 2006 record of $43,000
according to the National Association of Home Builders.
8/4/16-WSJ Online. The Bank of England lowered its benchmark interest rate to 0.25%, and the 10-year briefly traded at 0.644%
both the lowest on record (322 years).
8/1/16-WSJ Online. NASDAQ record close 5,184.20.
7/30/16-WSJ-A.1. GDP growth in the current post-recession period (starting 7/2009) at 2.1% is the worst expansion since 1949.
7/29/16-WSJ-A.1. U.S home ownership rate fell in 1Q to 62.9%, the lowest in 50 years.
7/22/16-WSJ Online. S&P 500 record close 2,175.03
7/21/16-WSJ Online. Per the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales rose 1.1% in June to an annual rate of 5.57MM
units, the highest level since February 2007.
7/20/16-WSJ Online. DJIA closed at a record 18,595.03
7/15/16-WSJ-C.1. Outstanding shares of S&P companies dropped year-on-year for the first time since 2011, driven by share buybacks
of $161.39B, the 2nd largest quarterly total ever.
7/14/16-WSJ-A.1. The Middle East returned as the largest oil producer, with output rising to a record in June, to 31.5MM bbl/day
according to the IEA.
7/8/16-WSJ-Online. The US 10-yr closed at a record low 1.366%.
7/7/16-WSJ-C.3. The Japanese 20-year bond fell to negative rates, -.015%, a record. The Japanese 10-year also hit a record, -.275%.
- Big-rig orders in the US hit a 6-year low, 13.1K units, in June, per ACT Research.
7/6/16-WSJ-A.1. The UK pound fell to a 31-year low, $1.30 / pound, last seen in 1985.
- WSJ Online. Another record low for the US 10-year: closed at 1.385%, hit a trading low of 1.321%.
7/1/16-WSJ Online. The US 10-year bond touched a record low, in trading yesterday, 1.385%, and closed at a record low 1.404%. The
30-year bond closed at a record low of 2.226%.
6/28/16-Financial Times Online. Brexit global market toll now estimated at $3T, a two-day record.
6/27/16-Financial Times Online. Friday’s global stock market drop resulted in a $2T value loss, the greatest since 2007.
6/26/16-WSJ Online. The Chinese yuan fell to its weakest level against the U.S. dollar since late 2010, after China’s central weakened its
benchmark rate by the biggest margin since a one-off devaluation in August 2015. The yuan was fixed at 6.6375 to the U.S. dollar, the weakest level for the domestic currency since Dec. 24, 2010. The People’s Bank of China slashed the yuan’s parity rate by 0.9%, compared with last summer’s 1.1% devaluation.
6/23/16-NYT and other. Britain voted to leave the EU, and the British Pound fell to 1.365USD, the lowest level since 1985. The DJIA fell
610.32 points, the 21st largest daily drop in history.
6/22/16-WSJ Online. Existing home sales rose 1.8% in May vs. April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.53 million, the National
Association of Realtors said, the strongest pace since February 2007. The national median sale price for a previously owned home was $239,700, up 4.7% from a year earlier and the highest on record.
6/14/16-WSJ Online. The German 10-year bond hit a record low, at –0.03%. UK 10-year gilts another record low, 1.14%.
6/10/16-WSJ-C.8. The yield curve flattened such that the 2-yr to 10-yr. spread is the lowest since August 2007.
6/8/16-WSJ-A-1. German 10-year bond yields fell to record lows, hitting .036%, UK 30-year bonds hit a record 2.039%, and Swiss 13-year
bonds hit a record 0%. The British record goes back to 1694.
6/3/16-WSJ Online. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a SA 38,000 in May, the weakest since September 2010, per the Labor Department.
5/25/16-WSJ Online. New home sales in April rose to a SAA rate of 619K units, the highest since January 2008, per the Commerce Dept.
- The Index of ending sales of previously owned homes rose 5.1% last month from March to 116.9 per the National Association of Realtors. This was the highest level since Feb. 2006.
5/16/16-WSJ Online. 2015 marked the lowest level of new conventional oil discoveries since 1952, per consulting firm HIS.
4/29/16-WSJ-A.1. S&P 500 profits, 1Q, declined for the 3rd consecutive quarter for the first time since 2008-2009.
4/21/16-WSJ Online. Initial jobless claims at a SA rate of 247,000 in the week ended April 16, the Labor Department said Thursday. That
was the lowest level for jobless claims since the week of Nov. 24, 1973.
4/11/19-WSJ Online. The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer (the cost of bearish put options relative to bullish call options) rose to a
record of 44.7% on Friday. The measure began in 1994 and measures 3-month risk. The VIX, a 30-day measure, did not hit a record.
4/5/16-WSJ Online. More Americans started a new job in February than in any month since before the recession that began in 2007—about 5.4 million people, per the Labor Department, but well below the mid 2000's.
4/1/16-WSJ-A.1. 1Q2016 IPOs, at $1.2B, is the lowest since 1Q2009.
4/1/16-C.1. Gold surged 16.5% in 1Q2016, the largest gain since 1986.
3/31/16-WSJ Online. Repo rates (T-bill backed) rose 3X to 1.75% on Thursday, the highest levels since September 2008
3/29/16-WSJ Online. VC funding, 1Q 2016 at $16B is the highest level since 1Q 2000.
3/28/16-WSJ Online. Global investment banking fees at $12.8B for 2016 YTD are the lowest since 1Q2009.
3/11/16-WSJ-A.1. Per the FED, the net worth of households in 4Q15 at $86.8T was the highest on record, most of it due to increases
in the value of home equity.
3/8/16-WSJ Online. Japanese 10-year bond touched <.1%>, the lowest on record, and the 20- and 30-year bonds fell to record
lows of 0.305% and 0.485% .
3/7/16-Reuters. China February FX reserves fall to $3.20 trillion, lowest since late 2011.
3/6/15-WSJ Online. Brazilian GDP shrank 3.8% in 2015 , the sharpest 1-yar drop in 25 years.
2/11/15-Financial Times online. The yield curve is flattening, 2-yr.—vs. 10-year…not seen since 2008. SEE spreadsheet above.
2/10/16-Reuters. The Baltic Dry Index hit a record low, 290. The index began in 1985.
1/29/16-WSJ-A.2. US durable goods fell 5.1% in December and declined 3.5% for 2015, per the Commerce Department.
The annual decline is the largest outside a recession on records back to 1992, 24 years ago.
1/27/16-WSJ Online. Per the Commerce Department, New home sales in 2015 reached an estimated 501,000, not seasonally adjusted,
the highest annual level since 776,000 new homes sold in 2007.
1/22/16-WSJ Online. Existing-home sales rose 14.7% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.46 million, per the
National Association of Realtors. For all of 2015, sales reached 5.26 million, the highest annual level since 2006. Inventories of existing homes for sale fell 12% to 1.79 million in December. At 3.9 months’ worth of supply, inventories are at the lowest level in nearly a decade, the Realtors’ group said.
- The national median home price, meanwhile, rose to $224,100, up 7.6% from a year earlier. That marks the 46th consecutive month of year-over-year price gains.
1/19/16-WSJ-A.1. China’s 2015 growth rate, at 6.9%, was the lowest in 25 years.
1/15/16-WSJ Online. December retail sales fell 0.1% from the prior month to SA$448.1B, the lowest increase in 6 years per the
1/12/16-WSJ Online. Per the Labor Department, the number of Americans who voluntarily quit their jobs in November climbed to the
highest level since April 2008, as 2.8 million Americans left an employer.
1/7/16-WSJ-C.1. Apartment rents in 2015 increased at a record pace (up 4.7%) to a record national average, $1,179 / mo. According
to two respected researchers, Reis Inc. and Axiometrics Inc.
1/6/16-WSJ Online. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, recently fell $2.14, or 5.9%, to $34.28 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures
exchange, the lowest intraday level since July 2004.
1/5/16-WSJ Online, A.1. Auto makers sold 17.5 million light-duty cars and trucks in the U.S. in 2015, a 6% increase from 2014 and
topping the 17.4 million sold in 2000.
WSJ Online. The Wall Street Journal Dollar Index, which compares the U.S. currency against a basket of 16 commonly traded
others, rose 0.6% to 90.89, the highest level since November 2002.
1/4/16-WSJ.A.1. According to the ISM, US factories are in their worst slump since 2009, index = 48.2
1/3/16-NYT Online, WSJ Online. 2015 was a record year for M&A, with $4.70 trillion in announced deals, up 42% from 2014.
Previous record: $4.29T 2007.
12/22/15-WSJ Online. Brent oil closed at $36.35 / bbl, the lowest end of day figure since July 5, 2004.
12/15/15-WSJ Online. Natural gas contracts for near delivery at $1.822 per million Btus is the lowest settlement since
March 24, 1999. On an inflation-adjusted basis, Tuesday’s settlement price is the second-lowest on record. The inflation-adjusted record low is $1.80/MMBTU, reached in January 1992.
12/4/15-WSJ Online. 2015 became the largest M&A year in history as of 12/2/15: $4.304T global total.
12/3/15-WSJ-A.1. Oil prices fell below $40/bbl, the lowest since Oct. 2003.
- U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose last week above 1.3 billion barrels, a record, according to the USEIA.
12/2/15-WSJ-A.1. US auto sales rose to a cumulative 15.82MM units through 11/30/2015, on track for a record year.
- Brazil’s economy contracted 4.5% in 3Q, continuing what is believed to be the largest drop since the 1930’s.
12/1/15-WSJ Online. The Institute for Supply Management reported November US factory activity at the lowest level in 6.5 years.
11/21/15 WSJ Online. Copper and nickel hit six- and 12˝-year lows on the LME.
11/16/15-WSJ Online. The $ rose to a 13-year high against a basket of 16 major currencies as measured by the Wall
Street Journal Dollar Index.
11/6/15-WSJ-A.2. The share of first-time home buyers fell to 32% of all purchasers in 2015 according to the National Association
of Realtors. That rate was the lowest since 1987.
10/22/15-WSJ Online. Per the Natl. Assn of Realtors, sales of existing homes rose 4.7% in September to the second-highest pace in
8 years, to a SA 5.55MM homes. The national median home price was $221,900.
10/20/15-WSJ-C.4. Gasoline prices on the front-month contract hit $1.2514 / gal., the lowest in 6 years.
10/12/15-WSJ Online. Wage growth at 0.2% during the second quarter, the slowest rate in 33 years.
10/8/15-Reuters Online. Labor Department said jobless claims for week ending 10/3 were 263K SA, a 42 year low.
10/2/15-WSJ Online. The September labor participation rate, at 62.4%, is the lowest since 1977, per the Commerce Department.
9/25/15-WSJ-A.3. Commerce Dept. reported new home sales, August, at 552K SA are the highest since 2008.
9/23/15-WSJ Online. The Brazilian Real hit 4.0667 to the dollar, dn. 35% this year and the lowest since 1994.
9/11/15-WSJ-A.1. 2015 tech IPOs at 11% of total, are the lowest in 7 years per Renaissance Capital.
9/5/15-WSJ-A.1 and CNS online. The US Unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, the lowest since 2008. At the same time, the Labor
Participation rate remained at a 38-year low for the 3rd straight month, 62.6%, and the number of Americans not in
the workforce rose to a record 94,031,000.
- WSJ-A.1. According to a variety of pension management trade groups and consultants, returns are forecasted at the lowest levels since the 1980s.
9/1/15-WSJ-B.1. August car and light vehicle sales at 17.8MM was the highest rate since 7/2005.
8/26/15-WSJ-A.1 US farm incomes will fall this year to $58.3B, down from $91.1B in 2014 and the lowest level in 9 years, per the USDA.
8/11/15-WSJ Online. China dropped the value of its currency 1.9%, the largest 1-day fall in over 20 years.
- Oil fell $1.88, or 4.2%, to settle at $43.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest price since 3/11/09.
7/23/15-WSJ Online. Labor Dept. reports initial jobless claims fell 26K to a seasonally adjusted 255K in the week ended July 18,
a 41-year low.
- per the Natl Assn of Realtors, US existing home sales for June at 5.49MM units were the highest since 2006, and the average price at $236,400 was a new record
7/17/15-WSJ Online. Per the Commerce Dept., construction of buildings with more than five units jumped 28.6% in June,
hitting its highest level since 1987.
6/29/15-WSJ Online. Pending home sales rose to its highest level in more than nine years in May, to a seasonally-adjusted 112.6,
the highest level since April 2006 according to the National Association of Realtors
6/25/15-WSJ Online. Per the BEA, consumer spending rose 0.9% in May from a month earlier, the biggest jump since August 2009
6/23/15-WSJ Online. Per the Commerce Department, new-home sales in May at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 546,000
are the highest since February 2008
6/22/15-WSJ Online. Existing-home sales rose 5.1% in May to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.35 million according to the
National Association of Realtors, the highest since 11/2009..
6/10/15-WSJ-A.1. April US job openings at 5.4MM were the highest since year 2000.
5/28/15-WSJ Online. The National Association of Realtors said Thursday its pending home sales index increased 3.4% to a
seasonally adjusted level of 112.4 in April , the highest level since May 2006.
5/19/15-WSJ Online. U.S. housing starts rose 20.2% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.135MM, per the
Commerce Department, the highest reading since 11/2007, and the biggest % increase since 2/1991.
5/14/15-WSJ-C.1. Emerging market bond funds have more than doubled since 2008 to a record $1.9T, per the IMF.
5/7/15-WSJ-A.1. Delinquent mortgages at 5.34% in 1Q15 was the lowest since 2Q07, according to the Mortgage
Bankers Association. However, 2.25% are in active foreclosure, roughly 2X the 2001-2005 rate.
4/29/15-WSJ-C.1. Australian household at the end of 2014, at $1.9T is the highest % of GDP in the world at 194%.
This is the highest rate since 1960, according to Barclays PLC.
4/24/15-WSJ Online. US crude-oil inventories 489MM bbl., an all-time high in records going back to 1982
4/21/15-WSJ-B.2. US VC funding in 1Q rose to $15.72B, the highest since the record quarter of $19.7B in 4Q 2000, according
to Dow Jones VentureSource. The current results reflect the highest median pre-money value, $67.1M.
4/3/15-US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The US labor participation rate at 62.7% is the lowest in 36 years.
3/21/15-WSJ-B.5. The NASDAQ Composite Index closed at 5026.42, the highest in 15 years.
3/16/15-Financial Times Online. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $43.13 / bbl, a 6-year low.
3/12/15-WSJ-A.1. The Euro fell to its lowest level in over 12 years (Jan. 2003), touching 1.0513 $ / Euro.
WSJ-C.1. The German 10-year bond hit a record low of 0.2%
WSJ-C.4. US crude oil supplies at 448.9MM bbl., the highest weekly total ever.
3/6/15-WSJ-A.1. The Euro fell to its lowest level in over 10.5 years (9/4/2003), 1.0843 $ / Euro.
-WSJ-A.1. US crude oil supplies rose to 442.9MM bbl., the highest level in 80 years, nearing 70% of storage capacity.
3/5/15-WSJ-A.1. The Turkish lira fell to a 10-year low, 2.9836 / $.
2/5/15-WSJ-A.1. US crude oil supplies rose last week to 413.1MM bbl., the highest weekly total since 1982, and the highest monthly
total since 1930.
1/30/15-WSJ-A.1. US 4Q14 home ownership fell to 63.9%, a 20-year low, according to the Commerce Department.
1/19/15-WSJ Online. China’s economy grew 7.4% in 2014, the lowest in 24 years according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics.
1/17/15-WSJ-A.9. Inflation fell for the first in the EU in December 2014, the first time on record (1997).
1/15/15-WSJ-B.3. US VC funding in 2014 was up 47% to $52.12B, second highest after all-time record $94.17B in 2000.
- A.1, C.4. Record negative govt bond yields, all negative: GDR 5-year –.016%; Finish 5-year –.08%; Swiss 7-year –.027%. US 30-year fell to a record low of 2.45%.
1/5/15-WSJ Online. The US dollar rose to the highest level in 13 years against major currencies, based on the WSJ Dollar Index, which
tracks the U.S. dollar’s performance against 16 other currencies.
- Oil prices briefly dipped below $50 / bbl, the first time since April 2009, settling at $50.04 on the NY Merc. Brent crude settled at $53.11, the lowest since May 2009.
1/3/15-WSJ-A.1. The share of Americans under the age of 30 who own their own businesses fell to 3.6%, a 24-year low, according to
data compiled by the WSJ from the Federal reserve Survey of Consumer Finances.
12/12/14-WSJ-A.1. Total U.S. household debt, at $14.061T has fallen from a peak of 135% of disposable income in late 2007 to 108% this
year through September, according to a Federal Reserve report Thursday. That’s the lowest sustained level since early 2003.
12/4/14-FT Online. According to the EIA, US proven oil reserves at 12/31/2013 of 36.5bn barrels,
a rise of 9.3% year over year are the highest since 1975, and one of the highest levels ever reported in records that go back to the 19th century
- WSJ Online. The US 2013 fertility rate hit a record low, 62.5 births per 1,000 women of childbearing age, down from 63 births in 2012, according to the CDC.
12/3/14-WSJ-A.7 The Nigerian naira fell to a record low against the $, at 186.9 to the $, lowest
12/2/14-WSJ Online. The ruble hit another record low, 54 to the $.
11/28/14-WSJ Online. According to the EU, Italy’s 13.2% jobless rate was its highest since 1977.
- The Russian ruble hit a record low of 50.03 rubles–per-$ during the New York session.
- EU 10-yr. bonds hit record lows: Germany 0.7%, France 0.99%, Spain 1.97% and Italy 2.03%.
11/24/14 Financial Times Online. In August, OPEC’s share of US crude oil imports dropped to 40%
– accounting for 2.9m b/d – the lowest since May 1985, according to Financial Times analysis of US Department of Energy data. At its 1976 peak it stood at about 88 per cent.
11/17/14-NYT Online. $1.5 trillion in deals targeting American companies have been announced
this year, the most since 2000, according to Thomson Reuters. Global deal-making in 2014 has topped the $3T
mark in a year for only the fifth time and is up 50% from the same time a year ago.
11/15/14-Reuters Online. The yen hit a 7.5 year low vs. the $, at 116.20.
11/14/14-WSJ-A.11. Crude oil on the NY MERC nearby future fell to $74.34 / bbl., lowest in 4
years, having dropped 30% since June.
11/13/14-WSJ Online. New claims for jobless benefits rose last week, but extended their sub-300K run
for the longest stretch since 2000.
11/4/14-WSJ-A.1. Per the National Association of Realtors, first-time home buyers made up the smallest
share of U.S. buyers in nearly three decades
- C.1. The yen fell to a 7-year low against the $, trading at 114.
10/30/14-Bloomberg online. The worlds largest bank, Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., reported its
biggest jump in bad loans since at least 2006 as the property market slumped and the economy cooled.
10/16/14-WSJ Online. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 23K to a seasonally adjusted 264,000K
in the week ended Oct. 11. the lowest in 14 years, according to the Labor Dept.
- The US budget deficit for FY2014 at $485.3B is the lowest in 6 years.
10/14/14-WSJ-A.1. Crude oil dropped below $90 on the US benchmark for the first time in 4 years.
- WSJ Online. German 10-year yields fell to a record low of 0.84%.
10/8/14-WSJ-A.1. US job openings reached a 13-year high in August, at 4.84MM.
10/3/14-WSJ Online. The jobless rate fell .2% to 5.9%, the lowest level since July 2008 per the Labor Dept.
9/26/14-Bloomberg online. The ruble fell to 39.0930 versus the dollar, a record low. Russia’s ruling party
proposed legislation that could allow for the seizure of assets of foreign governments in the country. Research (Oregon State) suggests this is true from 1776 to present.
9/25/14-WSJ-A.1 New home sales in August at 504K units were the highest since May 2008 and the biggest
jump since 1992, per the Commerce Dept.
9/16/14-WSJ-A.1 Corporations bought back $338.3B shares in FH2014, the highest since 2007 per Birinyi.
9/11/14-Financial Times online. Buffer stocks of wheat, feed grains and rice will rise in 2015 to 24.7% of annual
consumption, per the UN Food and Agriculture Organization. That would be the highest since 2003 and up more than 6 percentage points from lows during the food crisis in 2007-08, when soaring prices triggered riots in more than 30 countries.
9/3/14-WSJ-B.1. The average age of industrial equipment in the U.S. has risen above 10 years, the highest since
1938, on reduced domestic investment, according to economists at Morgan Stanley .
8/28/14-WSJ Online. Bank loan and lease balances rose to $8.11 trillion, a 2.3% increase over the first quarter
of 2014 and a record, and the largest Q-toQ jump since the end of 2007. Underlying FDIC data implies a decline in non-money center bank loans, which are 12% of total.
8/27/14-WSJ-A.1. July durable goods orders rose to a record $300.1B but fell .8% without Boeing orders.
8/21/14-WSJ Online. Corp. public bond offerings are approaching a record for the 3rd straight year, at $1T through
8/21/14 is the fastest pace on record, per Dealogic.
8/17/14-WSJ Online. Small business loans as % of total, at 24% are at a record low per the FDIC and are down 14%
8/14/14-WSJ Online. German 10-year rates fell below 1% “...for the first time in history.”
8/13/14 Financial Times Online. The Euro-based overnight rate fell to a record low 0.01% as the Ukrainian
Exchange rate to the $ hit a record low (13 hryvnia –per-$), along with 300 year low Spanish (2.58%, 10-year), Italian (2.7%, 10-year) and German interest rates (1% 10-year).
8/12/14-WSJ Online. U.S. employers had 4.7MM job openings at the end of June, per the Labor Department said,
the highest number of openings since February 2001.
8/6/14-WSJ-A.1. 76% of Americans believe the next generation will have it worse, a record (from 1994).
7/19/14-WSJA.1. Corp. buy outs at $444B YTD are the highest since records began in 1995, according to Dealogic.
7/8/14-Financial Times Online. The amount of so-called short interest in the benchmark US S&P 500 index is
hovering around 2 per cent of total shares in the index, close to the lowest level since Markit began collecting the data in 2006. In the European Stoxx 600 index, the level is similar at just over 2 per cent, while short interest in the UK FTSE All-Share index stands at less than 1 per cent.
7/2/14-WSJ-A.1. Auto sales at 1.4MM at the highest pace since 2006.
- C.4. US stock volume in June fell to the lowest level in 8 years. 5.8B shares, per Credit Suisse.
~6/30/14 WSJ Online. For the first time in a generation, the U.S. government granted permission for exports of U.S. oil.
6/25/14-WSJ Online. 1QGDP fell 2.9% SA, the fastest rate of decline since the recession, and was the largest drop
recorded since the end of World War II that wasn't part of a recession.
6/18/14-WSJ Online. 1Q US company dividends and buybacks hit a record $241.2B vs. previous record $233.2B
in 2007, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices .
6/10/14-Financial Times Online. Hostile takeover bids reached a 14 year high according to the Financial Times.
6/9/14-WSJ Online. CBOE's Volatility Index is down 5.6% to 11.03 in recent trading on Friday, on pace for its
lowest finish since it closed at 10.58 on Feb. 23, 2007
6/8/14-Reuters Online. The Chinese May trade surplus, at $35.9B was a 5-year high.
6/5/14-WSJ-C.1. According to Credit Suisse Trading Strategy, trading volume on US exchanges, at 5.7B shares
per day is the lowest since October 2007. The peak was ~12.1B shares in March 2009.
5/30/14-Bloomberg Online. Japan’s industrial production and household spending fell and inflation surged to a
23-year high on a tax rise
5/29/13-WSJ Online. Home-equity lines of credit, or Helocs, and home-equity loans jumped 8% in 1Q from a
year earlier, industry newsletter Inside Mortgage Finance said. The $13 billion extended was the most for the start of a year since 2009, but below the record $113B in 2006.
5/29/13-WSJ Online. U.K. consumer confidence reached its highest level in more than 9 years, according
to GfK, whose measure of consumer confidence has risen by 27 points, the largest gain over a sustained period since the seven months to December 1977
5/16/14-WSJ Online. Initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 297K
in the week ended May 10 per the Labor Department, the lowest rate since May 2007.
4/24/14-WSJ Online. Lenders originated $235 billion in mortgage loans during the January-March quarter, the
lowest in 14 years, down 58% v. 1Q 2013 and down 23% from 4Q 2013, according to Inside Mortgage Finance.
4/14/14-Reuters Online. U.S. venture funds raised $8.9 billion in the first quarter, the most in six years and
almost double 1Q 2013. according to the National Venture Capital Association, based on Thomson Reuters data. The previous high quarter was $10.4B in 4Q 2007.
- Venture-capital research firm CB Insights reported last week that investments by venture-capital firms into start-ups hit $9.99 billion last quarter, more than any quarter since 2001.
4/10/14-WSJ Online. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell 32,000 to a seasonally adjusted 300,000 in the week
ended April 5. That was the largest decline in claims since late 2012, pushing the overall level down to lows last seen in May 2007.
4/9/14-WSJ Online. Mortgage originations in February fell to their lowest level in at least 14 years due to the
months-long plunge in refinancing activity and weak demand for loans to purchase new homes, per Black Knight Financial Services.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association, meanwhile, reported on Wednesday that the share of mortgage applications for refinances hit their lowest level since July 2009.
3/27/14-St. Louis FED. M2 and MZM money velocity at 1.565 and 1.406 are at the lowest levels in history.
3/2/14-Financial Times Online. Margin debt hit a record $451bn on the NYSE, a rise of more than 20 per cent
over the past year and above 2007’s peak of $381bn. Five years ago it hit a low of $173bn.
2/27/14-Financial Times Online. French unemployment hit a record 11% and is expected to remain at that level
2/26/14-WSJ Online. New single-family home sales in January rose 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of
468,000 from a month earlier, reaching their highest level since July 2008, per the Commerce Department. New-home sales peaked in July 2005, when they hit an annual pace of nearly 1.4 million. Sales hit a low of 270,000 in February 2011.
- US home prices rose at the fastest rate since 2005. up 11.3% in 4Q vs. 2012. At that level the prices are consistent with 2004 prices and roughly 21% below peak prices in 2006.
2/19/14-WSJ-A.1. US household debt rose last Q to $11.521T, the highest level in 6 years, mainly due to student
- Student Loan debt rose to $1.08T, the highest on record.
2/12/14-WSJ.B.1. US auto inventories rose to the highest level since August 2009.
2/6/14-WSJ Online. The number of US expatriations (renouncement of citizenship or green cards) set a record
in 2013. according to the Dept. of the Treasury, up 50% compared with the prior 2011 record.
1/23/14-WSJ Online. The Turkish lira hit a record low vs. the $, at 2.3045 lira. The Russian ruble hit a 5-year low
at 39.75. The $ rose above 11 South African rand for the first time since October 2008.
- Financial Times Online. US CAPEX in the 12 months ending in Oct. 2014 is forecasted to grow at 1.2%, the lowest level since 2009, according to Factset.
1/10/14-WSJ Online. According to the DOL, the share of Americans who are either working or looking for work
fell to 62.8% in December, returning to the 35-year low it touched in October 2013.
1/7/14-WSJ-C.10. China’s auction of 5-year government bonds hit a 16 year high, 4.47%.
- WSJ Online. U.S. exports rose by 0.9% to a seasonally adjusted $194.86 billion in November from a month earlier, the Commerce Department said Tuesday, the highest level on record. The trade gap narrowed to $34.25 billion from $39.33 billion in the prior month. November's deficit was the smallest since October 2009.
1/4/14-WSJ.A.1. US cattle prices rose to a record $1.363 per lb. for live cattle on the CME.
- A.7 UK housing prices rose in 2013 at the fastest year-on-year rate in 3.5 years, up 8.4%, to the
highest level in in over 5 years.
1/3/14-WSJ Online. Lending to the private sector in the euro zone plunged in November at the sharpest annual
rate since records began more than 20 years ago, down 2.3%, data from the European Central Bank showed.
- Negative earnings guidance for 4Q13 hit a record (since 2006) with only 13 companies (about 8%), per
Factset, reporting gains.
12/31/13-WSJ Online. The DJIA posted 52 records on its way to 16,576.66, a record and a 27% gain in 2013, the
best since 1995. The S&P 500 closed up 30% for 2013 to 1,848.36, the highest since 1997. Japan's Nikei
Stock Average surged 57% to 1,629.31 for its biggest gain since 1972.
- The Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index lost 2%, its first decline since 1999.
12/31/13-WSJ Online. companies sold a record $1.111 trillion of bonds in the U.S. in 2013 per Dealogic. The
last record was 2012 at $1.053T. Records began 1995.
12/25/13-WSJ Online. According to the Commerce Department, October and November new home sates were
the two strongest months of new-home sales since mid-2008
12/24/13-WSJ-A.1,C.1. 3Q13 S&P500 stock buy-backs hit $128.2B, the highest since 2007 (record $589.1B).
Stock dividends and buybacks at $207B is also the highest in 6 years.
12/3/13-WSJ Online. The number of US banks at the end of 3Q2013, at 6,891, is the lowest since 1880.
12/2/13-WSJ-A.1. Per the National Retail Federation, Thanksgiving weekend sales fell 2.7% to $57.4B, the
first drop in 7 years.
11/29/13-Financial Times Online. European year-to-date collateralized bond sales at $166B were the lowest
since 1996, per Dealogic.
- Global collateralized bond sales, same period, at $193.1B were the lowest since 2002.
11/28/13-WSJ Online. The latest Investors Intelligence poll of newsletter writers puts the percentage of
bears at 14.4%, the lowest since 1987.
- Margin debt as a % of GDP is nearing the historical peak of March 2000.
11/27/13-WSJ-A.1. Housing permits surged to the highest level in 5 years (June 2008) on increases in
multifamily permits, according to the Commerce Department.
-A.1. US farm income is on track for the highest level in 40 years according to the USDA, rising
15.1% to $131B, owing to bumper crops of corn and soybeans.
11/26/13-WSJ Online. According to Dealogic, the M&A acquisition premium at 19% is the lowest on record
(records began 1995), compared to the historic average 30%.
11/26/13-Financial Times Online. Per Preqin, private equity cash holdings at $789B are the highest since 2008.
11/21/13-WSJ Online. The Senate ended the filibuster rule on Presidential appointments, changing rules in
effect since 1789.
11/14/13-WSJ-C.4. The US Treasury reported that US taxpayers renouncing their citizenship and leaving the
country, through 3Q, has already broken the previous yearly record set in 2011.
11/10/13-Financial Times Online. US 2013 IPO volume at $51.8B through October is the highest level since
2000, according to Dealogic. However, most of the volume appears to be private equity exits and tech
11/4/13-WSJ-A.1. US-listed IPOs in October at $12.7B were the highest since 2007.
10/1/13-WSJ-C.4. Debt issues by US investment-grade companies hit a record $146B in September.
9/19/13-WSJ Online. Existing-home sales rose in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.48MM per
the National Association of Realtors, the best month since February 2007
9/18/13-WSJ Online. Mortgage lenders originated nearly 9.8MMn mortgages in 2012, up 38% from 7.1MM in
2011 (a 16-year low), a 5-year high, but well below the peak years of 2000-2009, per the FED
9/6/13-WSJ Online. The US labor participation rate fell to 63.2%, the lowest since 1978, per the Labor Dept.
9/5/13-WSJ-A.1, C.10. US car sales in August rose to 1.5MM units, the highest since December 2007.
8/27/13-WSJ Online. The Turkish lira hit all-time lows vs. the $ which surged past 2.03 lira for the first time,
while the euro rose to a record high of 2.7163 lira
- The Indian rupee fell to a fresh record low of 66.00 to the $, “...causing a selloff in local stocks…).
8/20/13-WSJ-C.4. The Brazilian Real hit a new low against the $, breaking 2.41 per $.
8/15/13-WSJ Online. Initial jobless claims for the week ended 8/10 were 320K, the lowest since 10/2007 per
the Labor Department.
8/14/13-WSJ Online. Total household debt, including mortgages, credit cards and auto loans, fell by $78B in 2Q to
$11.15T, the lowest level since 2006, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The amount of bills 30 or more days late fell by $3.3 billion during the quarter, also reaching the lowest level in 7 years.
8/8/13-WSJ Online. The Mortgage Bankers Association said 5.9% of mortgages on one-to-four-unit homes were
90 days or longer past due or in the foreclosure process at the end of the June, representing around
2.8MM households, down from a peak of 4.5MM and the lowest in 5 years. The 2Q figure was down from
7.3% one year earlier and a high of 9.7% in late 2009.
8/1/13-Bloomberg Online. Claims for jobless benefits for the week of July 27 fell to the lowest level in more
than 5 years to 326K claims, according to the Department of Labor.
7/26/13-WSJ Online. The Thomson-Reuters/University of Mich. final July consumer sentiment index increased to
85.1, the highest reading since July 2007.
7/24/13-WSJ Online. New-home sales increased 8.3% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 497K, per
the Commerce Department, the highest level since May 2008. (New-home sales peaked in July 2005, at
an annual pace of nearly 1.4MM, and bottomed out in February 2011 with a rate of only 270,000.
7/18/13-WSJ Online. Detroit filed for bankruptcy, at $18.5B negative the largest in US history.
7/3/13-WSJ-A.1. US auto sales rose at the highest rate in 5 years in June to 1.4MM units, and a projected rate of
15.6MM annual units, also the highest since 2007.
6/27/13-WSJ Online. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate posted its largest weekly percentage increase in more
than 25 years (1987), according to Freddie Mac
6/26/13-WSJ-A.1. New home sales rose 2.1% in May to a SA 476K rate, the highest since 7/2008.
- The Case-Shiller Index of home prices rose 12.1% in April vs. prior year, the largest gain since 4/2006.
- Per the Natl. Assn. of Realtors, May sales of pre-owned homes rose to 5.2MM units, the highest since
6/7/13-WSJ Online. Per the FED, U.S. nonfinancial corporations held $1.78 trillion in cash and other liquid
assets in 1Q13, a record.
6/1/13-WSJ-A.9. Euro-zone unemployment hit 12.2% in April, the highest since records began (1995), with
- WSJ-A.2. April Core Inflation (excluding food and energy) ws 1.1% in April , the lowest on record
5/29/13-WSJ-A.1. Home prices in 1Q rose at the highest rate in 7 years (10.2% vs. prior year), according to the
S&P / Case-Shiller Index.
5/28/13-WSJ Online. The Conference Board index of consumer confidence increased to 76.2 in May from a
revised 69.0 in April, putting the index at its highest since February 2008.
5/24/13-WSJ-A.1. The average new home price hit $330.8K in April, a record, per the Commerce Dept.
5/17/13-WSJ Online. The Thomson-Reuters/University of Michigan early-May consumer sentiment index
jumped to 83.7 from 76.4 at the end of April and a preliminary April reading of 72.3, a 6-year high.
5/10/13-WSJ-A.1 Home prices in urban areas rose in 1Q to the highest rate in 7 years, per the
National Assn. of Realtors, to a median price of $176.6K.
5/9/13-WSJ-C.1 According to Barclays, junk debt fell to 4.97%, the lowest on record (1983).
5/2/13-WSJ Online. Initial jobless claims decreased by 18K to a seasonally adjusted 324,000 in the week
ended April 27, the Labor Department said Thursday—the lowest level for claims since January 2008
4/30/13-WSJ Online. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller home-price index rose 9.3% in Feb., the highest in
4/27/13-WSJ-B.5 According to Barclays, junk debt fell to 5.39%, the lowest on record (1983).
4/25/13-WSJ Online. The jobless rate in Spain rose sharply to 27.2% of the workforce in 1Q13, the highest
level since records began in the 1970s. In France, the number of registered job seekers who are
fully unemployed rose to more than 3.2 million, topping a previous record set in 1997
4/16/13-FT Online. Gold dropped to a 2-year low, $1,355.80 a troy oz.—the sharpest 2-day drop since 1983.
4/3/13-Financial Times Online. Joblessness in the euro area stayed at a record 12%, Feb. 2013. up from a
year-ago 10.9%, according to Eurostat Unemployed at 19.7MM is up 1.78MM from a year ago.
- WSJ-p.C.1. The Barclays US Aggregate bond Index (the “Agg” - the most followed bond index)
lost .12% in 1Q13, the first negative return since 2006.
3/29/13-Financial Times Online. The USDA reported that corn acres planted, at 97.3M acres, is the highest
3/27/13-WSJ Online. Foreign direct investment in the US rose to $3.1T in 2012, a record (1976 records
began), per Commerce Department.
3/26/13-WSJ Online. U.S. home prices in January registering the biggest increase since the summer of
2006, up 8.1%, according to Standard & Poor's Case-Shiller home-price indexes
2/26/13-Financial Times Online. Sales of single-family new homes in the US rose in January by 15.6% to a
seasonally adjusted annual rate of 437K, the highest level since July 2008 and home prices ended
2012 with the biggest annual gain in more than 6 years according to the Commerce Dept. The
number of homes for sale at the end of January was ~150K, a supply of 4.1 months at current sales
rates, the lowest since March 2005. Buy prices remain about 29 per cent below the 2006 peak.
2/22/13-WSJ Online. The number of homes listed for sale in January at 1.74MM is the lowest since Dec.
1999, according to the Natl. Assn. of Realtors.
2/24/13-WSJ Online. The American Institute of Architects said Wednesday that its Architecture Billings Index
rose to 54.2 in January, the highest level since November 2007, from 51.2 in December. The index
of new project inquiries rose to 63.2 in the three months to end-January vs. previous 57.9.
1/30/13-WSJ-A.1. November home prices rose 5.5%, the largest increase since August 2006 according to
1/24/13-WSJ Online. Initial jobless claims fell by 5K to a seasonally adjusted 330K in the week ended Jan.
19, the lowest level since Jan. 2008, per the Labor Department
1/21/13-WSJ Online. The U.K.'s FTSE 100 index gained 0.4% to 6180.98—its 3rd consecutive gain and
highest close since May 22, 2008.
1/19/13-WSJ Online. According to the American Petroleum Institute U.S. oil production grew more in
2012 than in any year in the history of the domestic industry, which began in 1859, and is set to
surge even more in 2013. Daily crude output averaged 6.4MM barrels a day last year, up a record
779K barrels a day from 2011 and hitting a 15-year high US oil demand fell to a 16-year low, and
total oil imports for the year fell by 6.9%, to a 15-year low
1/11/13-WSJ Online. The U.S. trade deficit in Nov., excluding petroleum products, increased 15.8% to
$48.73B, the highest in 5 years. The inflation-adjusted deficit, at $51.91B, also hit a 5-year high.
1/9/13-Financial Times Online. The VIX dropped to 13.2, its lowest level in 5 1/2 years.
1/8/12-WSJ Online. Eurozone unemployment in Nov. 2012 hit a new record, 18.82MM people, 11.8%.
1/6/13-WSJ Online. Live cattle for Feb. delivery at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reached an all-time
closing high of $1.3385 a pound Thursday, eclipsing the previous record set last March
12/31/12-WSJ-C.8. Lumber futures hit an 8-year high, $392.80 per 1,000 board feet.
12/30/12-Financial Times Online. Global debt issuance by banks for 2012 at $1.26T is the lowest since
2002, per Dealogic.
12/24/12-WSJ-A.1,A.3. 3Q consumer debt payments at 10.6% of after-tax income is the lowest since
1983, per the Federal Reserve.
12/21/12-WSJ-A.1,A.3. 3Q GDP grew at a 3.1% rate
12/20/12-Financial Times Online. World corporate debt issues hit a record in 2012 as the yield on the
Barclays US High-Yield Index, which moves inversely to prices, hit an all-time low of 6.07%. Per
Dealogic, corporate bond issuance was a record $1.71T in 2012 beating the 2009 record and up
46% per cent from 2011.
12/19/12-WSJ Online. The National Association of Home Builders confidence index for single family homes,
at 47, is the 8th consecutive increase and a 6-year high. An index of 50 is considered good.
12/18/12-WSJ-C.2. According to Equity Research Desk, 3Q share trading on US exchanges was 5.9B aver-
age per day, the lowest in 5 years.
12/11/12-WSJ-C.4. 2012 corporate debt issues at $1.025T set a new record even before end-of-year.
12/5/12-WSJ-B.2. US oil output in Sept. near a 15-year high.
12/2/12-Financial Times Online. Wholesale grain prices in the UK reached record levels, and the country
is expected to be a net importer at the highest level in 32 years.
11/30/12-WSJ-A.1. US birth rates have fallen to record low levels.
11/28/12 WSJ-C.4. The China stock market (Shanghai) closed at 1991.17, the lowest since 1/23/2009.
11/16/12-WSJ-C.2. US mortgage rates fell to new record lows, according to Freddie Mac, 30-year fixed:
3.34%, 15-year fixed: 2.65%.
11/19/12 WSJ Online. According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales were up in
October for the 16th straight month, and the inventory of existing homes for sale fell to 2.14 MM,
the lowest level since December 2002, a 5.4-month supply at current sales and the lowest since
- U.S. home builders' confidence rose for the 7th consecutive month in November to its highest
level in 6˝ years, the National Association of Home Builders said Monday.
11/7/12 WSJ-A.21. Eurozone unemployment rose to a record 11.6% in October.
10/31/12 WSJ Online. Unemployment in the Eurozone hit 11.5% in August, a record (tracking began
in 1995), or 18.49MM people. Youth unemployment at 23.3% was also a record.
10/26/12 WSJ Online. Unemployment in Spain hit a record 25.02% in 3Q12.
- WSJ A.10. The Euro-based Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (“CPB”) said
world trade volume declined .4% in July, the third straight drop and the longest down streak
Since Nov. 2008.
10/22/12 Natl. Review. A Congressional Research Service report shows that means-tested welfare
spending in the US hit a record $927.3B in 2011, a record and up 30% since 2008 and on
a pace to exceed $1T in 2012.
10/18/12-WSJ-A.1. US violent crime rose 18% in 2011, the first increase in nearly 20 years.
10/17/12 WSJ Online. Residential construction in September, at 872,000 units, is the highest since
10/13/12 WSJ-A.3. The Thompson/Reuters/Univ. of Michigan index of consumer confidence rose in early
October to 83.1, the highest since September 20007.
- B.4. The Chinese Yuan-to-$ rate, at 6.2640 per $, is the highest since 1994.
10/11/12 Reuters. September was the driest in 118 years of U.S. record keeping for North Dakota, South
Dakota and Montana and was the 3rd driest September for Nebraska and Oregon, said Mark
Svoboda, a climatologist with the University of Nebraska's National Drought Mitigation Center.
10/10/12 WSJ,B.1. Corporate issues of 30-year investment grade debt at $91.9B 2012 YTD is higher than
any full year since 1995, per Dealogic.
10/9/12 NYT Online. For the first time since researchers began tracking the religious identity of Americans,
fewer than half said they were Protestants, a steep decline from 40 years ago when Protestant
churches claimed the loyalty of more than two-thirds of the population. This according to
the Pew Forum on Religion and Public Life. 20% of Americans say they are atheist or agnostic,
a significant jump from 15%, 5 years ago.
10/6/12 WSJ-A.1. US Sept. unemployment rate at 7.8% was lowest since 1/2009. The ‘participa-
tion rate’, at 63.6%, remains at a 30-year low for all of 2012.
10/3/12 WSJ-A.1, B.2. US auto sales hit a 4-year high in Sept., at a 14.94MM annualized rate.
10/4/12 WSJ-A.1, 1.10. The US fertility rate fell to the lowest rate on record (from 1920) to
6.3%, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
10/3/12 WSJ-A.1, B.2. According to Autodata Corp, sales of cars in the US rose to an annual
rate of 14.94MM vehicles, the highest since 3/2008.
10/1/12. WSJ.C.9. According to S&P LCD, Texas Instruments and Unilever recently sold
3-year bonds at a record low .45%.
9/26/12. WSJ-A.1, A.4. Home prices rose at the strongest year-to-year gain in the year
ended July 31, up 5.9% and the greatest change since 2005 (per Case-Shiller).
- Consumer spending increased last year by 3.3%, the fastest rate since 2006 per
the Labor Dept. Spending on food at $6458 per person was the highest since 1984.
9/26/12. McClatchy. National SAT reading scores fell to 496, the lowest in 40 years, the
writing score was the lowest on record at 488 (since 2006).
9/19/12. WSJ-A.1, A.4. Mortgage loans fell to a 16-year low in 2011, 7.1MM vs. 6.2MM in
1995, according to the FED. This is 64% below the peak reached in 2006.
9/13/12. WSJ-A.1. US household income fell to $50,054, the lowest level since 1995 per the
9/6/12. WSJ Online. The NASDAQ hit 3135.81, its highest level since November 2000.
9/4/12. WSJ Online. Eurozone unemployed reached a record 18MM, or 11.3%.
- The USDA reported the nations cattle herd shrunk to the lowest level in 60 years as
prices on the April live cattle futures rose to a record $1.1807/lb.
8/30/12. WSJ Online. Soybean futures closed at a record $17.7025 a bushel on the CBOT, up
48% this year.
8/29/12. Reuters Online. Private sector deposits at Spanish banks fell by almost 5% in
July, the biggest monthly drop since the data began in 1997, according to the ECB.
8/28/12. WSJ-A.11. Spanish unemployment in 2Q at a record, slightly under 25%.
8/24/12. WSJ Online. The Census bureau reports the inventory of new homes available for
sale fell to 142K units, the lowest level recorded records began in 1963.
8/23/12. WSJ Online. WSJ Online. The Federal Housing Finance Assoc. reported 2Q home
prices rose 1.8%, the highest quarterly jump since 4Q 2005.
8/21/12. WSJ Online. Corn rose to a record $8.3125 per bushel on forecasts of the lowest harvest in 6
8/15/12. WSJ Online. The National Association of Home Builders housing market index rose
two points to 37 this month, the highest level since February 2007
8/13/12. WSJ Online. The value of auto loans outstanding at 2Q hit $725B, per Experian,
5.7% above a year ago and the highest level since 1Q09.
8/10/12. WSJ-A.7. Greek unemployment in May hit a record 23.1%.
8/11/12. NYT. The US slashed its estimate of the annual corn crop by 15.5% to its lowest
level since 1995
8/7/12. WSJ Online. Home prices rose by their largest % in at least 7 years during 2Q, up
6% from 1Q, according to CoreLogic Inc., a Santa Ana, Calif., data firm. Separately,
Freddie Mac, which uses a different methodology, said home prices during 2Q
jumped by 4.8% from the previous quarter, the largest jump since 2004
8/1/12. WSJ Online. The Energy Information Administration said in its annual report that
proven reserves of crude oil jumped by 13% in 2010, the highest % since 1977.
The EIA estimates 25.2bbl crude reserves vs. 7bbl consumption, and 318tcuft of
gas vs. 24tcuft consumption.
7/27/12. WSJ-C.4. 7-year treasuries sold at auction at a record low, .954%.
7/26/12. WSJ-A.1, C.4. Treasures hit a record low on the 10-year note, 1.393%.
7/24/12. WSJ-A.1, A.2, C.1. The yield on 30-year treasuries hit a record low, 2.479%
- U.S. home prices 2Q rose from the year-ago period for the first time since 2007, up
.2%, according to Zillow. Also, prices climbed 2.1% from the 1Q to 2Q, the largest
such gain since the end of 2005.
7/19/12. WSJ-A.1,C.4. US corn and soybean prices hit records on drought fears, $7.95 per
bu and $16.835 per bu, respectively.
7/17/12. WSJ-A.1., A.4. The current drought in the US is the widest since 1956, per NOAA.
7/12/12. WSJ Online. The US sold 10-year Treasury notes at a record low yield of 1.459%.
7/11/12. WSJ Online. Revolving consumer credit (includes mostly credit cards), jumped 11.2%
to $870.20B in June –the biggest % rise since November 2007, according to the FED.
7/5/12. WSJ Online and p.A.1, A.3 print. Apartment rents increased in all 82 markets
tracked by Reis Inc., a real estate data firm. Average rents are now at record levels
in 74 markets. The nation's vacancy rate fell during the quarter to 4.7%, its lowest
level since the end of 2001
7/2/12. WSJ Online. Eurozone unemployment rate rose to a record high in May, according
to Markit Economics. Records began 1/95. Total unemployed 17.56MM.
- The Institute for Supply Management new orders index fell in May at its fastest pace
in more than a decade—dropping from 60.1 to 47.8.
6/22/12. WSJ.C.12. The Indian rupee fell to an all-time low vs. the $, 56.55 rupees per $.
6/18/12. WSJ Online. The National Association of Home Builders housing market index at
29 this month, was up a point from a month earlier and the highest level since
May 2007. May’s reading was revised downward by a point to 28.
- Data from Spain's central bank showed the country's lenders have the highest level
of bad loans on their books in 18 years.
6/14/12. WSJ Online. Spain’s 10-year bond traded at 6.96%, the highest rate ever in the
Euro era, as housing prices there declined 12.6% annualized in 1Q after falling
11.2% in 4Q11 and by 7.4% in 3Q11.
6/10/12. WSJ Online. U.S. oil output in 1Q 2012 rose 12% from a year earlier to 6MM
barrels a day for the first time in 13 years
6/1/12. WSJ Online. Eurozone unemployment hit 11%, the highest since Jan. 1995 when
the currency union was formed.
- WSJ Online. 10-year yield dropped below 1.5% for the first time ever,
reaching as low as 1.437%. The 30-year bond's yield touched as low as 2.508%,
nearly breaking the 2.505% record low set in December 2008 after the collapse of
Lehman Brothers sent investors scrambling for shelter.
5/30/12. WSJ Online. German 10-year bond yields dropped to 1.34% in market trading,
a record low.
- The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield sank to an all-time low of 1.659%
as fears about the euro-zone debt crisis intensified.
5/14/12. WSJ Online. German 10-year bond yields dropped to 1.472% in market trading,
a record low.
5/10/12. Financial Times Online. German 10-year bond yields dropped to 1.49%, and
UK long-term debt dropped to 1.88% – the lowest level for benchmark bonds since
the Bank of England started collecting data in 1703.
- The US sold bonds at record low yields for 10-year bonds at 1.85%.
- Spanish yields rose to euro-era highs of 6.70% (since 12/16/1995).
5/8/12. WSJ-C.4. High-grade corporate bond yields hit a record low yield (since 1973)
of 3.25% on the Barclays US Investment-Grade Index
5/5/12. WSJ-A.14. Per the Labor Department, the April civilian labor participation rate
at 63.6% is the lowest since December 1981.
5/4/12. Financial Times Online. US mortgage rates hit a record low with thirty-year
fixed rate at 3.84%
4/30/12. WSJ Online. The home-ownership rate fell in 1Q to the lowest level in 15 years
due to foreclosures and the weak economic recovery, according to the Census
4/2//12. WSJ-A.1. Spain (the 12th largest world economy) hit an 18-year high
Unemployment rate of 24.4%.
4/19/12. WSJ-A.1,C.3 Delinquent loans in Spain at 8.16%f hit a 17-year high.
- WSJ Online. Total hedge-fund assets surged to $2.13T at the end of 1Q beating
the previous high of $2.04T, set in 2011, according to Hedge Fund Research Inc.
4/12/12-WSJ-A.1,C.4. Natural gas closed on the NYMERC at $1.984 per mbtu, the lowest
close since Jan. 2002 and down 52% in the past year.
4/6/12-WSJ-A.5. Dept. of Labor reports initial jobless claims at 357K, SA, for the last week of
March were the lowest since 4/2008.
3/27/12-WSJ Online. The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller index that tracks 20 U.S. metro areas
fell to levels not seen since the end of 2002.
- C.4. The S&P 500 traded above 1400 for the first time since 5/2008.
3/23/12-WSJ Online. TIPS sell at a record low Yield of negative-0.089%
3/16/12-WSJ-A.1,A.12. Effective 4/1/12 the US will have the highest corporate tax rate,
10-to-15 percentage points higher than the world average.
3/11/12-WSJ Online. China’s trade deficit, $31.5 billion in February, the largest on record.
3/9/12-WSJ-c.4. Natural gas prices at $2.272 per mbtu were the lowest since 2/15/02.
3/2/12-WSJ-A.1. Euro zone unemployment hit 10.7%, a 12-year high.
2/28/12-WSJ-A.1. Jan. pending home sales, National Assoc. of Realtors Index at 97, was the
highest since 1/2007
- A.1. Japanese chip maker Elpida filed for bankruptcy, the largest in Japanese history.
2/22/12 WSJ Online. According to the National Association of Realtors, the January inventory of
previously owned homes listed for sale fell to 2.31MM, the lowest level since March 2005.
That is a 6.1-month supply at the current sales pace, a level economists consider healthy.
2/2/12-Financial Times Online. The Baltic Dry index (shipping cost on bulk commodity dry goods
vessels) fell to $5,327 per day, the lowest August 1986, mainly due to a glut of ships and slow
1/31/12-WSJ Online. Five-year Treasury yields set an all-time low at 0.704%
1/28/12-WSJ-B.5. The USDA reports the US cattle herd at 90.8MM units is the lowest in 60 years.
1/24/12-WSJ-A.1. Japan recorded its first annual trade deficit since 1980 for 2011.
1/18/12-WSJ Online. The National Association of Homebuilders Index rose to 25 in December, the highest
since June 2007.
1/14/12-Bloomberg. German 5-year gov’t rate dropped to as low as 0.733%, the least since Bloomberg
began collecting the data in 1990. The Dutch 10-year yield dropped six basis points to 2.09% after
reaching a record low 2.073%
1/12/12-NYT-quoting Xconomy. Per CB Insights, VCs invested $30.6 billion in 3,051 deals in 2011, highest
in 10 years.
- AP. Freddie Mac reported the average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 3.89%, a record
low (since early 1950’s). Ditto 15-year rates at 3.16%.
1/11/12-WSJ Online. Orange juice futures hit a record high, closing at $2.1275 per # on the ICE.
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