First a disaster. Then a surge in prices.
After a natural disaster comes the demand surge. The cost of materials and labor needed for reconstruction rises dramatically. This slows down the rebuilding process and may prevent many people, especially those in vulnerable communities, from rebuilding at all.
Mohsen Shahandashti, associate professor of civil engineering at The University of Texas at Arlington, recently received a three-year, $250,000 grant from the National Science Foundation to develop methods to measure, model and conduct community vulnerability assessments to determine what construction gaps exist so they can prepare for and mitigate demand surge in future disasters. Mahmut Yasar, a professor of economics in the College of Business, is co-principal investigator.
“I know disasters and the build environment, and Dr. Yasar is an expert in economics and human factors. It’s really exciting to be able to study this fundamental problem from both sides of the issue and come up with solutions that will help communities rebuild faster and at lower cost,” Shahandashti said.
The team will address fundamental limitations of existing demand surge models in multiple ways:
• creating non-hazard baselines for housing construction cost variations
• developing a measurement method for quantifying post-disaster construction cost escalations
• creating models to represent the housing reconstruction demand surge
• assessing housing reconstruction vulnerability of communities
• quantifying the impacts of disaster-related policies on housing reconstruction
The greatest costs of rebuilding after a disaster are construction-related materials and labor, Shahandashti said. Some materials are used immediately, while others aren’t needed until later. Costs for some materials may rise immediately, while others may increase in price later as they become less available.
“When we get our results, we can create models to test how demand and needs will actually happen,” he said. “We’ll look not only at whether or not costs change, but why. The results of these models will allow community leaders to evaluate policies to help mitigate demand surge and benefit the citizens of the affected communities.”
- Written by Jeremy Agor, College of Engineering