Li leading project to improve air quality forecasting to mitigate health impacts from wildfires

Wednesday, May 07, 2025 • Greg Pederson :

An Earth and environmental sciences researcher at The University of Texas at Arlington will use funding from NASA to develop an early warning system for wildfire-related air quality impacts.

Yunyao Li, assistant professor, is principal investigator for the $885,166 grant from NASA’s Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Earth Science Division for a study titled “Enhancing Multi-Agency Wildfire Ensemble Forecasts for Health and Air Quality Decision Support in the U.S. and Beyond”.

Aside from causing destruction of forests, homes, and property, wildfires are significant contributors to hazardous air quality. Wildfires emit particulate matter and gaseous compounds that can negatively impact human health. Exposure to wildfire smoke has been linked to respiratory health issues and all-cause mortality risk.

These effects are not limited to the source area but can impact populations in downwind regions and even extend across state and national borders. In one recent example, in June 2023 smoke from wildfires in Quebec reached the East Coast of the United States and caused severe air pollution to places including New York City and Washington D.C.

Data shows that large wildfires in the United States are becoming increasingly common, and the smoke resulting from these fires has exposed millions of people to unhealthy air quality. Air quality forecasting is an important tool to help mitigate the potential damage caused by wildfires. However, factors including the unpredictability of emission rates and smoke characteristics, as well as wind, weather patterns and other meteorological factors, make forecasting wildfire air quality difficult.

“Our project aims to create a multi-agency ensemble forecast technique and leverage this, along with Earth observations, to enhance wildfire air quality forecasting capabilities and develop tools that advance decision-making processes related to wildfire air quality and health management,” Li said.

Li’s co-PIs are Kevin Cromar, clinical associate professor at New York University; Peng Xian, meteorologist with the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL); and Laura Myers, research scientist at Kaiser Permanente Northern California (KPNC) Division of Research. The project also includes eight collaborators from NOAA, NASA, NRL, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), and one from Canada.

“Congratulations to Dr. Li and her team for securing funding for this important study,” said Arne Winguth, professor and chair of the Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences. “Wildfires are becoming more and more of a threat in many parts of the U.S. and abroad, and accurate air quality forecasting is critical to protecting the health of people who might feel the effects of these fires far from their origin. This study will help provide valuable tools to enhance these forecasting capabilities.”

The first step will be to collaborate with four U.S. federal agencies and one Canadian organization to create an advanced air quality forecasting system for North America.

“This system will leverage Earth observations to develop a sophisticated model weighting technique, thereby enhancing current air quality forecast capabilities,” Li said.

Next, the team will employ the forecasting system and work closely with key users including KPNC, EPA, USFS, NOAA, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and the International Cooperative for Aerosol Prediction (ICAP), to develop products and solutions that support informed decision-making processes related to air quality and public health.

Among the tangible benefits the study will provide are a collaboration with KPNC to create a fire smoke visualization tool and patient-centric messaging system based on the ensemble smoke forecast, enabling better real-time communication of air quality impacts; and providing ensemble air quality forecasts to the EPA’s AirNow program, improving the agency’s ability to provide accurate and timely air quality information to the public.

Li has done extensive research in wildfire air quality and health impacts, atmospheric composition, emissions, real-time air quality forecasts, and extreme weather events. She is a member of the WMO Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Warning Advisory System, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts group, the Fire/Smoke and Arctic group, and the NASA Health and Air Quality Applied Sciences Team.

After earning her Ph.D. in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science from the University of Maryland in 2018, she worked as a research scientist on wildfire emission and air quality modeling at NOAA and George Mason University. She was the lead developer of the NASA Hazardous Air Quality Ensemble System and the GMU daily air quality forecast system.

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